Ideas

Thought Paper

Superhot Rock Geothermal

In our relentless pursuit of greater power densities, the transition from rudimentary energy sources such as wood to the sophistication of nuclear power encapsulates humanity’s continuous quest for more efficient, powerful, and cleaner energy solutions. This journey highlights significant leaps in our ability to harness energy more densely and efficiently, driven by groundbreaking scientific and technological innovations. With the US goal to create a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035 and a net zero emissions economy by no later than 2050, our exploration for dense energy sources enters a critical phase.

Thought Paper

Longevity

The goal of scientists researching the biology of aging is often misunderstood to be extending lifespan at all costs, even if that means living longer in a decrepit and frail state. The reality is that no one, especially those of us studying aging, desires this. The goal of aging research is exactly the same as that of modern medicine: keep us as healthy as possible for as long as possible. The key difference is the means by which this is achieved. We recognize that there are underlying biological mechanisms at play that progressively change our biochemistry — how our cells, tissues, and organs function and interact with each other.

Thought Paper

Water Treatment

Is the world running out of water? Ask a farmer in west Kansas praying for rain as their irrigation well dries up and the answer may be very different than a kayaker in Minneapolis gliding down the northern Mississippi River. But the reality is that we are facing a global water crisis in which the US is no exception. Just like carbon emissions produced in Europe affect the climate of someone living in Brazil, the ripple effects of water pollution and overconsumption reach further than our own backyards, especially with increasingly common drought events due to climate change.

Thought Paper

Challenges and Trends in Sustainable Aviation Fuels

As governments and consumers signal greater demand for sustainability in every part of the economy, aviation is no exception. Over 2% of global carbon dioxide emissions come from aviation, and major airlines and industry trade associations have set targets of net-zero carbon emissions for air travel by 2050. This requires switching away from fossil fuels toward sustainable aviation fuels (or “SAF”), such as biofuels or synthetic kerosene.

Article

What Startup Founders Should Look For in a Board Member

As a startup founder and investor, I’ve had the good fortune of assembling multiple boards and serving on more than a dozen startup boards over the last decade. In my experience, most board members lack the skill set or don’t invest the time needed to be constructive board members. As we continue to navigate uncertain economic times and founders are looking for more counsel than ever before, I wanted to share some advice on how to find the best board members.

Article

Now Is the Time for Startups to Hire Top Talent

A lot of attention has been given to how challenging it has become for startups to raise new capital during the current financial winter. On the other hand, hiring has become easier across some industries. Whereas the past few years have been a crazy market for hiring talent, the balance of power is returning to companies that are hiring. While more technical roles in artificial intelligence, defense, climate, robotics, and life sciences remain competitive for many of these portfolio companies, here is how I see the new hiring landscape shifting.

Thought Paper

Diagnostics

Medical diagnostics are critical in identifying the root cause of a patient's symptoms and guiding appropriate treatment. Without accurate and timely diagnosis, patients may receive inappropriate or ineffective treatments, leading to prolonged illness, complications, or even death. At Prime Movers Lab, we are deeply committed to promoting human flourishing, which has driven us to undertake an extensive exploration of the latest developments in the field of medical diagnostics.

Article

Startups Need to Reset Expectations When Raising Venture Capital

As we enter 2023, it is well understood that financial markets are presenting challenging conditions for start-ups. Venture capital firms only invested $36.1 billion in Q4—a 63% decline compared to the same period a year ago, according to Crunchbase. I expect this pace to continue well into 2023, so founders need to have a clear roadmap if they’re looking to raise their next round this year. Since last spring, I’ve been working with our portfolio companies to prepare them for their next rounds. Here is some of the advice that I’ve given them.

Thought Paper

Robots and Humans

The movie A.I. Artificial Intelligence came out in 2001, and for many it was their introduction to the phrase “artificial intelligence”, and despite the evolution of the industry, the term “AI” will always be inextricably entwined with Haley Joel Osment’s Mecha humanoid robot. I, Robot, The Terminator, and Battlestar Galactica depicted a robot filled future, and in most of these popular depictions, the robots took human form. The media was a reflection of the real excitement of the time. Those decades saw the birth of Boston Dynamics and the DARPA Grand Challenge. So twenty to thirty years later, are we any closer to this vision of the future?

Thought Paper

Critical Minerals for a Clean Energy Transition

The term “clean energy transition” is likely one you’re familiar with given the recent windfall of climate-related legislation from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill. These bills provide over $500 billion in tax credits, loan guarantees and other incentives, hoping to spur clean energy innovation from R&D to demonstration. However, investments in clean energy are not limited to the public sector. The private sector is also investing heavily in clean-energy startups with approximately $70 billion invested over the past two years.

Article

Too Many Venture Capitalists Are Focused on the Wrong Startups and Priorities

The collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX is leading to a lot of soul-searching in the startup and venture capital ecosystem. With the full extent of the scandal still coming to light and a domino effect playing out across the crypto space, one thing is clear to me: Too much money is going into Web3 startups that are not going to address large-scale challenges like climate change, feeding a growing population and treating mental health problems.

Article

Breakthrough Science and the Future of Venture Capital

Sam Lessin’s recent article The End of Venture Capital as We Know It has received a lot of attention in the startup community. Lessin argues that a monumental shift in startup investing is coming to fruition as software has already eaten the world, and larger institutions continue to jump into the software venture capital market at an unprecedented rate. I think he is largely correct. I believe that today, the future of venture capital is breakthrough science transforming billions of lives in sectors like energy, transportation, infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture and human augmentation.

Article

Startups Should Look For VC Firms With Unfair Advantages

I previously wrote about what venture capital firms look for in startups when looking to invest. This time, I want to turn the tables a little bit and share what startups should be looking for in their investors. I like to describe these traits as unfair advantages. What do I mean by an unfair advantage? Unfair advantages are characteristics that give a venture capital (VC) firm a leg up over the competition that enables them to find the most promising startups, support those founders and provide bigger returns for their investors time and time again.

Thought Paper

Orbital Debris

Some high-value areas in orbit around Earth are getting crowded. The number of spacecraft launched per year has increased ten-fold compared to a decade ago. Statistics vary as references are quickly obsolete with each new launch (which alone reinforces that orbital content is increasing rapidly). Regardless, the trend does not appear to be slowing. The latest Euroconsult Analysis predicts a four-fold increase in satellite launches in the next decade – or approximately 17,000 new satellites.

Article

How Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Could Drive Advances in Energy Technology

No one would accuse Vladimir Putin of being a green energy advocate. However, by invading Ukraine, the Russian leader may inadvertently become one of the most critical actors in the world’s shift to new energy technology. And that’s not all. Other sectors like transportation, manufacturing, infrastructure, agriculture, and human augmentation are also going to see huge breakthroughs in the coming years because of Putin’s reprehensible actions in Ukraine.

Article

It’s Time for Startup Founders to Face Reality

Financial experts have been predicting that the tech bubble is on the verge of bursting. While those predictions have been wrong for nearly a decade, they may finally be right. The combination of high inflation, rising interest rates, broken supply chains, the war in Ukraine, and a host of other issues make this correction a little different. The tech-heavy NASDAQ is down almost 30% this year, IPOs will likely be down 70% by the end of the year, and the effects are just starting to be felt in the private markets. While this may seem like a scary time for startup founders, current market conditions actually provide a lot of opportunity. A recent conversation between my team and the CEOs and CFOs of our portfolio companies brought up some important points relevant to startup founders.

Article

Use Chronological Scenario Planning to Help Your Startup Get Through a Potential Recession

Over the past few months, investors from Sequoia to YC have sounded the clarion call to get their portfolio companies preparing for winter. At this stage, it does not matter if we agree or not: Enough momentum in the market has shifted that market behavior has become a self-fulfilling reality. Over the past 60 days, we have been working closely with our portfolio companies to help devise “winterization plans.” We have gone through this exercise enough that we have seen some patterns that might be helpful to others as they create their own plans.

Thought Paper

High-Speed Flight

Over the last decade, I have been delighted to see the end of the ‘Great Stagnation’ in the aerospace industry. The upswing in aerospace technology development has been driven by a combination of advancements in materials and computers, the public’s increased appetite for technical risk, and the rise of a new Great Power Competition. This thought paper will review the fundamental physics, history, enabling technologies and current market landscape underpinning today’s high-speed flight renaissance.

Thought Papers

Psychedelic Medicine

In modern translation, Renaissance means rebirth, revival, and recovery. And if you have been watching, even a little bit, the popular press coverage around the medicinal use of psychedelics, it is easy to see why that descriptor has been attached. After a long winter of being relegated to illegal, Schedule I drugs, nature’s pharmacy of psychedelic compounds is going through a rebirth of exploration and acceptance for the treatment of an increasingly wide range of mental health issues. It has been a long time coming.

Thought Paper

Fuel Cells

Currently there is a fairly sharp line between the worlds of electric power and the hydrocarbon fuels (oil and gas) we use for transportation and industrial heat. Hydrogen doesn’t play a big role in providing electricity or as a transportation fuel at the moment, but its role is set to expand, especially in Europe. Looking ahead, hydrogen could provide a solution for both sides of our energy needs: as a flexible form of energy storage to support the electric grid, and as a transportation fuel.

Thought Paper

Agricultural Automation and Food Processing

The advent of agriculture in ancient times may have been the fundamental enabler for all known civilizations to flourish. And ready access to food remains a cornerstone to society even today. We all need to eat, and there are more of us every day. Advances in farming technology have been enabling increased crop yields since time immemorial; and nowhere is this more visible than in the last hundred years with the widespread adoption and expansion of agricultural automation.

Thought Paper

Lithium Batteries

There is an ever-growing need for portable energy storage solutions ranging from cell-phone batteries to electric vehicle batteries, and from microbatteries for tiny disposable sensors to lightweight powerpacks for flying cars. This is an overview of the current state of the lithium battery industry. We explore the future of portable battery technology, and how to evaluate new battery technologies for applications ranging from electric aviation, autonomous vehicles, medical implants, to portable electronics.